2022-23 NBA MVP Race: Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid in two-man race

The rhetoric around this year’s NBA MVP has grown so toxic I’m sort of scared to dip my toes into those waters. But, here at FOX Sports, there are no weeks off. 

So with that in mind, here’s what my MVP ballot would look like if a) I had a vote, and b) the season ended today:

1. Nikola Jokic, Denver NuggetsStats: 24.7 PPG, 12.0 RPG. 10.0 APGFOX Bet MVP odds: -189

I’m still leaning Jokic, but this was also the closest I’ve come to pushing Embiid ahead of him. The good: Jokic is shooting an obscene 62.8% from the field and is the heart and soul — and liver and kidney and brain and even esophagus — of a Nuggets squad that is a lock to finish the season as the No. 1 team in the West. That’s all Jokic. With him on the court, they perform at the level of a typical 69-win team, according to Cleaning the Glass. Without him, they play like a 13-win one. 

That said: The Nuggets have now dropped three in a row, and while Jokic has racked up back-to-back triple-doubles, to go along with 72 points on 60% shooting in the last two of those defeats, he is part of the reason Denver has had so much trouble slowing down opponents. Just look at this compilation from last week’s loss to the Spurs:  

It’s not fair to pin all this on Jokic. And some of these clips can be taken a bit out of context. But it also offers a glimpse into Jokic’s limitations and how those can affect the team. 

2. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ersStats: 33.4 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 4.1 APGFOX Bet MVP odds: +220

You can’t play much better than Embiid has of late. He’s scored 30 or more in six straight games — while also shooting 50% or better from the field in each of those contests, all Sixers wins. That stretch includes this dagger to lift his Sixers past the Trail Blazers. 

Embiid is now leading the NBA in scoring and doing so while shooting a sparkling 53.9% from the field. The Sixers, meanwhile, are just one game behind the Boston Celtics for the No. 2 spot in the Eastern Conference. If Embiid keeps up something close to this pace, and the Sixers keep winning games — they have the same amount of losses as the Nuggets — it’s going to become harder and harder to make an argument for anyone other than Embiid. 

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee BucksStats: 31.5 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 5.5 APGFOX Bet MVP odds: +650

You could make an argument that Giannis essentially being dropped from the MVP conversation — it all seems to focus on Embiid vs. Jokic — is unfair. After all, he’s the best player on the NBA’s best team, and as dominant as ever. 

So why do I have him below Jokic and Embiid? For one, he trails both in minutes and games played. And he’s not as impactful an offensive player as Jokic, and his field goal percentage, while still pristine (54.3%), no longer laps Embiid. He also has some nagging injuries, leading to some extra days off, which is going to hurt him down the stretch.

4. Jayson Tatum, Boston CelticsStats: 30.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 4.8 APGFOX Bet MVP odds: +5000

Sure, the Celtics have struggled a bit of late. And, yeah, Tatum struggled with his jumper coming out of the All-Star break. But let’s not overcomplicate this. Just look at Tatum’s last three games (before Monday’s abysmal loss at Houston): 40 points and 11 rebounds in a loss to the Knicks, followed by 30 points on 11-for-17 shooting in a win over Portland, and 35 points, 15 rebounds and six assists in a victory over the Hawks. Tatum’s not going to crack the top-3 this season. But he’s on the cusp. 

5. Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento KingsStats: 19.4 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 7.1 APGFOX Bet MVP odds: N/A

The first newcomer on this list in a while. But in my view Sabonis has passed both Ja Morant and Luka Doncic. Morant has now wrecked his own season, and who knows if we see him again, and Luka, while putting up his usual All-World numbers, is leading a Mavericks team that is hovering around .500 and barely clinging to a play-in spot. 

Sabonis, meanwhile, is the offensive hub of the streaking Kings, who have soared to within one game of second place in the West after winning eight of their last 10 games, thanks to an offense that is currently scoring at a record pace. Sabonis’ brilliant passing, particularly from the elbow, and ridiculous efficiency (he’s shooting 61.0% from the field) is the fulcrum of that attack. 

Light! That! Beam!

Next up, in no particular order: Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, De’Aaron Fox and Jalen Brunson.

Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports and the author of Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports. Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.

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