Atlético-MG and Cuiabá face each other this Thursday, at 20:00 (Brasília time), at Mineirão. The match is valid for the penultimate round of Serie A of the Brazilian Championship.
In 9th place, with 52 points, Gal depends only on himself to return to seventh place and stay within the pre-Libertadores group. In case of victory soon, Cuca’s team reaches 55 points, equaling the score of Athletico-PR, which occupies the sixth place. Thus, the fight for a direct spot in the group stage of Libertadores will be decided in Sunday’s round of the Brasileirão.
For later, In the place of Allan, suspended, the natural replacement will be Otávio. There is scope for changes in the starting lineup, even more so after the defeat at home in the last round. Junior Alonso can resume his position in the defense. On the side, there is the Mariano x Guga fight. In the attack, Ademir and Pavón, reserves, look for a gap. Eduardo Vargas should be kept in command of the attack.
Cuiabá only needs a draw to confirm their stay in the elite of the Brazilian Championship. Without losing for three games, with two wins and one draw, Dourado occupies the 16th place, with 38 points, three more than the now only competitor in the fight against relegation: Atlético-GO. A defeat leaves Dourado with very remote possibilities of relegation: the Dragon would have to win in the last round and hope for a defeat for Cuiabá, in addition to taking ten goals from the balance.
Dourado will not have coach António Oliveira on the sidelines, who was sent off in the last round. Defender Marllon is out for the third yellow card. Pepê is another casualty for the confrontation, due to a muscle discomfort in the thigh. The base of the starting lineup and the tactical structure used in the last rounds must be maintained, with four defenders, three midfielders and an attacking trio.
Atlético-MG Analysis
After 13 wins, 13 draws and 10 losses, the home team is in the 9th position, having won 52 points. In the last match, they lost with Botafogo at home by (0‑2), after in the previous match they tied away, in a match against São Paulo, by (2‑2). This is a team that maintains its performance when playing outside its stadium, as in the last 30 games it has recorded 5 wins, six draws and four defeats as a visitor; against six wins, four draws and five defeats in their stadium.
In the last 10 home matches for the championship, Atlético‑MG has recorded two wins, three draws and five defeats, having won nine points out of 30 possible. In the matches played at their stadium in the championship, the most frequent result at the end of the first 45′ was the 1‑0, which occurred in 8 of their 18 matches. In 36 matches for this competition, they have only turned the score around twice in the 11 matches in which they have conceded the first goal. In the last 18 home matches for this competition there is a period that stands out: they have conceded seven of their 18 goals between minutes (76’‑90′).
Cuiabá analysis
After nine wins, 11 draws and 16 losses, the visiting team is in the 16th position, having won 38 points. In the last match, they tied with Palmeiras at home by (1‑1), after in the previous match they had won away, in a game against Botafogo, by (0‑2). This is a team affected by the home advantage, stronger when it plays with the support of its supporters, since in the last 30 matches it has recorded two wins, three draws and 10 defeats as a visitor, with a total of 11 goals scored and 21 conceded.
At home, they won five victories, six draws and four defeats, with a total of 14 goals scored and 13 conceded. In the championship, Cuiabá won six points out of 30 possible, after a win, three draws and six defeats in the last 10 games they played as a visitor. Defensive consistency hasn’t been their strong point, as they have conceded goals in eight of the last 10 matches, but their offense has scored consistently, as they have scored goals in nine of the last 10 matches for this competition. In their away matches there is a tendency for few goals, since 12 of the last 18 matches for the competition have ended with Under 2,5 goals. In 36 matches for this competition, they have conceded the first goal 19 times and have only turned the score around once.
Both teams score: Atlético-MG needs to win to continue with their goals in the Libertadores spot. Cuiabá, on the other hand, needs the three points to scare away the fall once and for all. Therefore, it is quite likely that the teams will score goals in this game.
Under 2.5 goals: Another important data is the offensive numbers of the teams this season. Atlético-MG was below expectations, and Cuiabá has one of the worst marks this season. Therefore, it is quite likely that the game will have few goals scored.
